TRENDS IN WORLD EXPORTS

          The years 2008 and 2009 were tumultuous ones for global trade. The sub-prime crisis of USA in 2007 led to the global financial crisis in September 2008. The financial crisis resulted in full blown global recession which resulted in considerable fall in global trade. World trade volume (goods and services) grew by only 2.8% in 2008 compared to 7.3% in 2007. The world trade growth tumbled down month after month from September 2008 onwards. While the fall seems to have been stalled with the recovery in the later part of 2009, but the world trade continues to vulnerable given the nature of recovery and the EU crisis (beginning with Greece Crisis in the beginning of 2010).

*  IMF Estimates :-

           The world recession in 2008-09 had deep impact on world trade. The global trade of about 16U$ trillion in 2008 collapsed. In the first half of 2009, the world trade was 5.8 US $ trillion compared to 8.2 US $ trillion in the corresponding first half of 2008. According to IMF, growth of world output and trade volume of goods and services fell to (-) 0.8% and (-) 12.3% respectively in 2009. 

            The crisis seems largely to have petered out in the second half of 2009 with global trade recovering from the downtrend. The IMF projects a better-than-expected growth in world trade volume of 5.8% for 2010 and 6.3% for 2011. Consequently, world output growth is estimated to increase to 3.9% in 2020 and 4.3% in 2011.

*  WTO Estimates :-

              In March 2009, WTO estimated a decline of 9% in global trade for 2009, the largest in over 60 years. 

*  World Bank Estimates :-

              The World Bank estimates world real GDP growth to fall by 2.2% and world trade volume to fall by 14.4% in 2009. As per World Bank, the dollar value of world trade plummeted by 31% between August 2008 and its low point in March 2009.

              Examination of the month- wise exports and imports for the world, India and some major trading partners of India from 2008 onwards indicate a recovery in trade with export growth becoming positive in November 2009 over November 2008.

              The following table indicates export growth and import growth of some of the leading countries between November 2008 and November 2009 (per cent).

              The export and import growth has become less negative in the countries mentioned above. For instance, the export growth of India has increased by 18.2% and the import growth has become less negative by (-) 2.6% between November 2008 and November 2009.

*  Conclusion :-

              Though we are still not our of the crisis, there is greater degree of confidence, particularly in countries with strong fundamentals like India and China which have weathered the crisis with great dexterity and spearheaded the recovery.